Did the Sarnia-Lambton Real Estate Market Actually Crash in 2025?
If you followed headlines in 2025, you might think the sky was falling for Canadian real estate. Words like crash, collapse, and market downturn were everywhere.
But when we look closely at what actually happened here at home, the story is far more balanced—and far more interesting.
Below is our December 2025 Sarnia-Lambton real estate market recap and 2026 outlook, breaking down what happened with prices, sales, interest rates, government policy, and local development—and what it all means if you’re buying, selling, or investing this year.
A Quick Snapshot of the Sarnia-Lambton Market in 2025
Let’s start with the big picture.
In December 2025, there were 74 residential sales across Sarnia-Lambton, about 22% fewer than December 2024. Activity slowed toward the end of the year, which is typical during the holidays and in a higher-rate environment.
At the same time, 118 new listings came to market in December—up roughly 13% year-over-year. That tells us sellers didn’t completely pull back, but we also didn’t see a flood of inventory.
Pricing remained steady:
Average sale price: ~$507,000 (up ~2.9% year-over-year)
Median price: ~$440,000
Months of inventory: ~4.9 (a balanced market)
Looking at the full year:
1,618 total sales (up ~2.6% from 2024)
3,266 new listings (up ~6%)
Year-to-date average price: just over $528,000, essentially flat
Bottom line:
Sales cooled, inventory increased, and prices stabilized. This wasn’t a crash—it was a market catching its breath after years of extreme conditions.
What’s Happening in the City of Sarnia and by Home Type
Zooming in on Sarnia city specifically:
December sales: 54 (down ~14% year-over-year)
New listings: 52 (down ~24%)
Average sale price: ~$437,000
Median price: ~$421,000
Months of inventory: ~3.5
That puts Sarnia right on the edge of a balanced market—buyers have more choice, but sellers still retain leverage when homes are priced and presented correctly.
Sales were up just over 3% year-over-year
Listings increased by about 4%
Average price: just over $500,000
Median price: mid-$400,000s
By Home Style
Bungalows remained the most in-demand style, averaging around $525,000, popular with families and downsizers alike
Two-storey homes: ~$385,000
1.5-storey homes: ~$339,000
By Price Range
Most activity occurred between $300,000 and $600,000, with very few sales below $200,000 and limited activity above $900,000. This continues to make Sarnia-Lambton attractive for buyers relocating from higher-priced Ontario markets.
The National Picture and the Bank of Canada
Local real estate doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
Across Canada, late-2025 data showed:
National average prices down 1–2% year-over-year
Sales down roughly 10–11%
A national balanced market by most measures
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, signaling caution rather than urgency. For buyers and sellers alike, this creates a more predictable environment than the rapid rate changes of prior years.
GST & HST Changes: What New Builds and Rentals Need to Know
Federal policy is also shaping the future supply of housing.
For Rental Construction
A full GST rebate is now available on qualifying new purpose-built rental projects
Ontario is matching this provincially, effectively eliminating the 13% HST on eligible developments
Projects must be long-term rentals (not short-term or condo conversions)
For First-Time Buyers
Budget 2025 proposes additional GST/HST relief for first-time buyers purchasing new homes, potentially eliminating the 5% federal GST on qualifying properties under ~$1 million
Exact eligibility depends on final legislation, so buyers should confirm details with their lender or lawyer—but the intent is clear: encourage rental supply and support first-time buyers.
Local Housing & Development Projects to Watch
Beyond resale stats, several local projects will shape the market in the years ahead:
Habitat for Humanity Sarnia-Lambton
A new four-plex in Forest
A five-unit tiny-home project on Christina Street South
A broader goal of 10 new affordable homes by 2026
471 Kathleen Avenue, Sarnia
A three-storey building with 50 one-bedroom units
Includes 14 barrier-free supportive housing units
Development Charges Adjustment
Sarnia significantly reduced development charges in Development Area 2, reversing a steep increase from 2024 and lowering the cost of building in key areas of the city
These projects won’t change the market overnight, but over time they can ease pressure at the lower end and improve neighbourhood stability.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors in 2026
For Sellers
Pricing strategy matters more than ever. With inventory higher and days on market around 46 days, overpricing usually leads to longer selling times—not bidding wars.
Detached homes remain strong, but negotiation is now normal. Sellers in the first-time buyer price range (under $600,000)—especially those moving up—are often in a very favourable position.
For Buyers
This is a calmer, more balanced market than 2021–2022. Buyers have:
More choice
More time
Better chances to include conditions
If you bought at higher rates in early 2024, it’s also worth speaking with your lender about mortgage options or potential refinancing strategies as policies evolve.
For Investors
Returns are about fundamentals, not fast appreciation. Smart acquisitions, strong tenant demand, and careful expense management matter more than speculation. Long-term stability remains the theme.
Final Thoughts
Sarnia-Lambton didn’t crash in 2025.
It stabilized.
We ended the year with slightly higher sales, more inventory, flat but resilient prices, steady interest-rate policy, and meaningful local housing development underway.
If you’d like to understand what this means for your home value, buying power, or next move in 2026, we’re always happy to help.
Reach out to the Blue Coast Team for a personalized market evaluation or buyer consultation—and let’s make sense of the numbers together.
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