Stabilizing Sales, Rising Prices & A Strong Start to Spring

The spring market has officially arrived in Sarnia-Lambton—and for the first time in months, we’re seeing signs of real stability.

After a slower start to 2026, March brought a noticeable shift in momentum. Sales have leveled off, listings are climbing, prices are rebounding, and overall market conditions are trending back toward balance.

Let’s break down what happened in March and what it means moving forward.

Sales Activity: Finally Stabilizing

March 2026 recorded 120 residential sales, exactly the same as March 2025. This marks the first time in recent months that we haven’t seen a year-over-year decline.

• Down 9.1% compared to March 2024 (132 sales)
• Still below the peak of 189 sales in March 2021
• Year-to-date sales sit at 272, down 9.3% from 2025

While we’re still behind previous years, the key takeaway is that the downward trend is slowing—and stabilizing.

Detached homes are driving the recovery, with 111 sales (up 3.7% year-over-year), while condo/apartment sales remain minimal due to limited supply.

Sales Volume: A Strong Rebound

• $63.7M in sales volume for March 2026
• Up 8% from March 2025

This is a healthy jump and reflects stronger buyer confidence heading into spring.

That said, year-to-date volume is still down 13.7%, largely due to a slower January and February. March tells a very different—and much more optimistic—story.

Listings Surge: More Options for Buyers

March saw a major increase in new listings:

• 321 new listings (up 13% year-over-year)
• Highest March listing count in 10 years

Detached homes led the way again with 286 new listings, also a multi-year high.

This surge means:

• Buyers have more choice than they’ve had in years
• Sellers are entering the market in full force for spring

Interestingly, year-to-date listings are still flat—making March the clear turning point.

Inventory & Market Balance

At the end of March:

• 532 active listings (down 9.7% from last year)
• 4.4 months of inventory (down from 4.9)

This puts us firmly in balanced market territory.

What this means:

• 0–3 months = Seller’s market
• 4–6 months = Balanced market
• 6+ months = Buyer’s market

We’re moving in the right direction—tightening up while still giving buyers room to negotiate.

The apartment/condo segment, however, remains oversupplied at 6.7 months of inventory, giving renters and buyers more leverage in that category.

Prices: Bouncing Back

March brought strong price growth:

• Average price: $530,780 (+8% YoY)
• Median price: $475,000 (+3.5% YoY)

Detached homes continue to lead:

• Average: $545,000 (+7.6%)
• Median: $512,000 (+9%)

This is one of the strongest year-over-year price gains we’ve seen in a while, driven in part by new construction sales re-entering the market.

Where the Market is Most Active

The bulk of activity is happening in the $500K–$700K range, accounting for about 40% of all sales.

Other highlights:

• Strong movement in the $300K–$500K range
• Increasing activity in the $700K+ segment
• Very limited inventory under $300K

This reinforces a key trend: entry-level options are shrinking, while mid-range and move-up buyers are driving the market.

Days on Market & Negotiation

• Average days on market: 26.5 days (slightly improved)
• Sale-to-list ratio: 96.7%

Homes are selling relatively quickly, and sellers are still achieving close to their asking price—while buyers maintain some negotiating power.

Key Trend: The Spring Market is Back

All signs point to a strong spring:

• Sales are stabilizing
• Listings are rising
• Prices are increasing
• Inventory is tightening

We’re also starting to see more buyer activity, including multiple-offer situations returning in some cases.

After a long winter, many buyers who were waiting on the sidelines are now re-entering the market.

Major Update: HST Changes on New Homes

One of the biggest developments right now is new HST rebate programs that could significantly impact buyers:

1. Federal Rebate (5%)

• Available to first-time home buyers
• Applies to new homes
• Can be claimed retroactively within the past year

2. Provincial Rebate (~8%)

• Also for first-time buyers
• Introduced in late 2025

3. Expanded HST Relief (Up to 13%)

• Applies to homes up to $1M
• Potential savings of up to $130,000
• May apply to move-up buyers and some investors

This is already influencing the market:

• Builders adjusting prices to stay under $1M thresholds
• Increased interest in new construction
• More incentives like upgrades and appliance packages

Interest Rates & Mortgage Trends

The Bank of Canada has held its key rate steady at 2.25% since late 2025, and most forecasts suggest stability through 2026.

However:

• Fixed mortgage rates are starting to tick upward slightly
• Over 1 million Canadian mortgages are renewing in 2026
• Many homeowners are coming off sub-2% rates from 2021

While Canada’s mortgage stress test has prepared many borrowers, this wave of renewals could influence market activity later this year.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

Buyers:

• More listings = more choice and negotiating power
• Prices are rising, so timing matters
• New construction incentives and HST savings are worth exploring

Sellers:

• Demand is stabilizing, but pricing correctly is critical
• Homes are still selling relatively quickly
• Spring offers a strong window to list

Final Thoughts

March marked a turning point for the Sarnia-Lambton real estate market.

We’re seeing a shift toward a healthier, more balanced environment—one where both buyers and sellers can find opportunity.

As we move into April and beyond, all eyes will be on whether this momentum continues—but early signs suggest Spring 2026 could be one of the most active markets we’ve seen in years.